Last Week in Review

Last week in every market segment was down including energy, materials and utilities. Overall, it was a tough week with the S&P500 down 3.1%, Nasdaq fell 2% and the Dow Jones Industrial declined 3.8%. Year-to-date the S&P500 is now down 9.3%. Small caps continue to outperform large (less negative) and growth is trouncing value investing. Market jitters continue and the bears are winning.
Oil troubles continue with prices rising to new highs. Increasing energy prices have stoked inflation fears. The numbers of speculators in the commodity markets is growing rapidly only adding to the feeding frenzy. In addition, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran is adding instability to an already rocky oil market. The scuttlebutt is that Israel will bomb Iran with assistance from the U.S. in the next six months. Oil prices will soar to over $200 a barrel if Iran is attacked. Baring an attack, the energy markets look very frothy and should retrench from these lofty levels.
Problems in the financial sector persist. Banks have only written off one-third of their bad investments and the housing market is rapidly disintegrating. These problems will not be fixed overnight. Until the housing market begins to recover the economy and markets will stay in turmoil.
Inflationary forces continue in the developed and developing world is reaching the choking point. Many economists feel inflation is not that bad because it has not spread to workers. Rising unemployment is keeping wages down. So in economist-speak inflation is not so bad.
In the real world the problem is that the collapsing housing market in conjunction with rising food, energy and healthcare costs have taken the consumer out of the market. I know I write this all the time but two thirds of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is generated by consumer spending. Consumers aren’t spending (look at the recent performance of retailers and automobile manufacturers). Consumer lead recessions (vs. business lead recessions) are always deeper and take longer to recover. It takes more time to build up consumer sentiment and get consumers spending again. This is not going to be an easy and quick V-shaped recovery. It will probably resemble a very wobbly wide W-shape.
The Fed is talking hard ball and many of its members want to raise the Fed Funds Rate when they meet. It will be difficult for them to raise rates any time soon because it would bring this fragile economy to a screeching halt. Instead, they will have to keep rates where they are and if things get worse they may have to lower rates again.
In the short run, the market will remain choppy with equities swinging significantly down on bad news and moderately up on good news.
I will be in Chicago this week at the Morningstar Conference. I hope to meet with numerous portfolio managers of mutual funds. I will be reporting back my findings and interviews.

Commodities: Short Term Bubble

In January 2007 oil was $60 a barrel and this morning it is approximately $137 a barrel. It is a mind boggling rise in prices that has hurt consumers and attracted significant media attention.

Speculators are widely blamed for this rise. See the attached graph by JPMorgan which shows the marked increase in speculators participation. Speculators are partially to blame for this run up but there are sound fundamental reasons for this rise. There is more demand for oil (think emerging countries like China) and a tight supply. The third impetuous is rising political risks in the Middle East. It is very likely the U.S. and/or Israel will bomb Iran before Pres. Bush leaves office. This will destabilize the supply of oil causing the price to escalate further.

Goldman Sachs sees crude rising to $141 a barrel and possibly $200 a barrel in 2009. As with all bubbles it is hard to see where and when we will reach the top and how far and swiftly we will fall when it bursts. The bubble will burst as demand begins to wane (as growth in China continues to slow and demand in the developed country contineus to drop) and supplies stabilize. Speculators will leave the market like rats off a sinking ship. This might not happen for at least a year but it will happen. I do think long term that a 3% allocation to commodity futures is a good diversifying investment if you are using futures and the DJ AIG Commodity Index. The road will be pretty bumpy and beware of any erosion in the oil futures market.

Commodities - A Smart Investment Defensive Strategy From The Financial Pragmatist

Over two years ago, I added a position in commodity futures to almost everyone’s portfolio using the PIMCO Commodity Real Return Strategy Fund Institutional shares (PCRIX). A small allocation (approximately 3%) is a great defensive play aimed at bolstering your portfolio if the stock and bond markets have a depressed period of performance.

The performance the last few years has been strong (up approximately 20%). However, the Commodities market plunged beginning in May. Suddenly, investors began to focus on rising interest rates and slower economic growth. The hot money (hedge funds) headed for the exits, aggressively selling commodity futures contracts, commodity-related exchange-traded funds and natural-resources stocks. By the end of September, the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity index fell 13% from its May high.

Is the bull market in commodities over? No and in fact commodities soared over 5% in November 2006. The downturn appears to be merely a necessary correction in an extended cycle that could run into the next decade. China and other populous developing nations have an insatiable demand for oil and metals. As these countries urbanize and build a middle class they will need raw resources to build homes, roads, cars refrigerators and dish washers.
Commodity futures generate return in several ways. First, the futures contracts guarantee a set price at a future date, and commodity producers pay what can be thought of as an insurance premium for that certainty. In essence this can be thought of as compensation for providing insurance to commodity producers who want to hedge their exposure to fluctuations in commodity prices. This insurance is largely independent of changes in commodity prices, so even if prices decline commodity futures can generate a positive return.

Second, the collateral that backs futures contracts is invested and earns a return. It only takes a small amount of the capital to buy the futures contracts. The rest is the collateral. In PIMCO a small percentage of the assets are used to purchase commodity swaps that are designed to replicate the performance of the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index (DJ-AIGCI). The remaining assets serve as collateral and are invested in portfolios of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). These treasuries will probably generate returns in the low to mid single digits. This return can be added to the other return components.

Third, individual commodities are uncorrelated to one another, and as a commodity futures index is rebalanced a return is generated over time from reversion to the mean. This happens as strong-performing, over weighted commodities are reduced and weak-performing, underweighted commodities are added. This benefit can only be captured if the index is owned over many years.

All of this is in addition to any returns that would come from price changes in commodities that are different than what the market was expecting—i.e., if actual commodity prices ended up being much higher than what investors were expecting, those future contracts would appreciate in price. That’s what makes commodity futures a good hedge against inflation.