Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Recession, Yes or No?

Does it really matter whether we meet the economist’s technical standards for defining a recession or not? I think the answer is yes! It is clear to just about everyone that the economy is in trouble. Even our Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke admits that it is highly likely that we are in recession. He actually used the R word.
The downward slopes of most of the graphs below speak for themselves, but here are a few highlights. Jobless claims are beginning to rise. This past week monthly job losses hit a five year record high. The consumer doesn’t need an economist to tell him that the job market is getting increasingly dicey, just look at consumer sentiment. It is not just the job market that has consumers running scared. The combination of declining house prices, skyrocketing oil and food costs, a major credit crunch as well as rising job layoffs have brought consumer confidence to its lowest point in five years. Let’s face it -we are in a recession or at least flirting with one.

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